Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market31 Aug 2026

Will another Premier League to Premier League transfer of £40m or more complete before the deadline?

BinaryResolves 1 Sep 2026
Hunch64%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Manchester City completed the £65m signing of Iliman Ndiaye from Everton before the deadline, a fee reported by both Sky Sports and ESPN (2 September 2026).

Resolved 1 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves YES on a completed permanent transfer between two Premier League clubs, announced by the buying club by 01:00 BST on 2 September 2026, with a fee of £40m or more reported by at least two of Sky Sports, ESPN and the Premier League. Undisclosed fees do not count.

The pattern behind it

3 of 4
Three of the four verified windows had the summer's biggest Premier League fee flowing to another Premier League club, and the exception was an overseas deadline-day deal. The mechanism is not sentiment about English football. Profitability and sustainability rules reward selling academy and domestically registered players, buyers pay a premium for proven league experience, and clubs facing an accounting deadline find it easier to agree terms with a club under the same rules. Four windows is a thin sample and the exclusions list says which ones we could not verify.

In three of the four summers we checked, a league club got the top fee. We looked at the biggest fee a Premier League club paid in each summer window since 2019. We used only the four summers where a first-hand report, cited below, confirms that fee. For each, we asked one question: was the selling club also in the Premier League? We left out summers we could not check. A reader who can find a source for a missing summer can send it, and it goes in.