History. 4 of 6 cases flew again within 84 days. Falcon Heavy and New Glenn waited 429 and 301 days.
Hunch. SpaceX wants Starship in regular service later in 2026, and this was its first flight that earns money (Reuters, 28 Sep 2026).
Resolves on SpaceX's flight 15 page (spacex.com/launches or spacex.com/updates), with Spaceflight Now and the FAA as backup: YES if Starship-Super Heavy lifts off on flight 15 before 23:59 Central Time (Starbase) on 21 December 2026. A scrubbed or delayed launch resolves NO.
We looked for cases where a new rocket's test flight did its main job but part of the rocket failed, and where the company itself chose when to fly again. We kept cases where the company also had a government contract that needed that rocket. We found six, from 2013 to 2026. In four, the next flight came 63 to 84 days later. In the other two, Falcon Heavy and New Glenn, it took 301 and 429 days, and both waited for a customer's payload.