History. 3 of 6 cases. In the two Starship cases with an investigation, the FAA announced it on day 1 and day 5.
Hunch. Five days after flight 14 the FAA statements page had nothing on it, and after flight 13, when the booster also hit the sea hard, the FAA never made a statement.
Resolves on the FAA statements page: YES if the FAA says the 28 September 2026 Starship flight 14 was a mishap or that an investigation is required, before flight 15 lifts off and by 21 December 2026. Flight 15 lifting off without such a statement, or silence until 21 December, resolves NO.
We looked for cases where a new rocket's test flight did its main job but part of the rocket failed, and where the company itself chose when to fly again. We kept cases where the company also had a government contract that needed that rocket. We found six, from 2013 to 2026. In four, the next flight came 63 to 84 days later. In the other two, Falcon Heavy and New Glenn, it took 301 and 429 days, and both waited for a customer's payload.