Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Oct 2026

If Starship flies by 21 December, will the booster hit the sea hard?

BinaryResolves 21 Dec 2026
History1 of 5
Hunch26%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 21 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 1 of 5 checked cases: the part that failed failed again on the next flight only after Starship flight 12. Flight 3 is not counted.

Hunch. Some booster engines stopped again during the return on flight 14, so the fix is not complete, even though the booster came down under control (Reuters, 28 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

Conditional on market 1. Resolves on SpaceX's flight 15 summary, with Spaceflight Now as backup: YES if booster engines fail to start or stop during the landing burn and the booster does not land as planned (hard splashdown, explosion or loss). A controlled landing resolves NO. Void if flight 15 does not lift off by 23:59 Central Time on 21 December 2026, or if its plan has no powered booster landing.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
In four of six cases the rocket flew again 63 to 84 days after the flight that went partly wrong. In the other two the wait was 301 and 429 days.

We looked for cases where a new rocket's test flight did its main job but part of the rocket failed, and where the company itself chose when to fly again. We kept cases where the company also had a government contract that needed that rocket. We found six, from 2013 to 2026. In four, the next flight came 63 to 84 days later. In the other two, Falcon Heavy and New Glenn, it took 301 and 429 days, and both waited for a customer's payload.