Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market07 Nov 2026

Will Step Into Christmas chart above Sam Fender's John Lewis song?

BinaryResolves 25 Dec 2026
History100%
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 25 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 8 of 8: in every season from 2018 to 2025 the song from the John Lewis Christmas advert was lower on the Christmas chart than Amazon's song; it was in the top 100 only twice (72 in 2019, 75 in 2020).

Hunch. In past years the John Lewis song always charted below Amazon's song, but this year it is sung by Sam Fender, whose Rein Me In spent longer at number one than any other UK song, and it comes out on vinyl and CD.

How this resolves

The John Lewis market resolves on the same chart: YES if Step Into Christmas (Amazon Music Original) is higher than Sam Fender's You Can't Always Get What You Want, or is in the top 100 when the Fender song is not, and NO if the Fender song is higher. If neither song is in the top 100 the market is void, and BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.

The pattern behind it

1 of 8
One of eight times since 2018, a Christmas song made for Amazon Music was UK Christmas number one, and seven times another song was.

We looked for cases where a music streaming service put out a Christmas song of its own that was not on rival streaming apps, before the UK Christmas chart. We found eight Christmases from 2018 to 2025, all of them Amazon Music. Its song was number one once, in 2025. In the other seven years it reached between number 2 and number 56.