The Bank of England GBP/USD rate (XUDLUSS) fell from 1.3313 on 27 October to 1.3301 on 28 October 2026 but rose to 1.3397 on 30 October, so the two changes have different signs.
Hunch. The Federal Reserve gives its rate decision on 28 October, Budget day itself, so a second big dollar move can come before Friday.
The same-direction market resolves on the Bank of England daily GBP/USD rate (series XUDLUSS): YES if the change from 27 to 30 October 2026 has the same sign as the change from 27 to 28 October, NO if the signs differ, and void if either change is zero. If the Bank of England database does not open, Reuters and The Guardian decide together.
We looked for cases where the UK government presented a Budget while its ten-year borrowing cost was near a five-year high: in the month before, at least 95% of its highest month in the five years before. We started in 1973, after the UK let the market set the value of the pound in June 1972. We found five such Budgets, four of them between 1973 and 1990. (Bank of England; Bank of England; Hansard)