The Bank of England GBP/USD rate (XUDLUSS) was 1.3397 on 30 October 2026, higher than 1.3313 on 27 October 2026.
Hunch. KPMG puts the room under the first fiscal rule at £12bn, below the £15bn to £20bn investors expected on 27 October, so the Budget may show more borrowing than investors are ready for.
The Friday rate market resolves on the same Bank of England series XUDLUSS: YES if the rate for 30 October 2026 is higher than for 27 October 2026, NO if it is lower, and void if they are equal. If the Bank of England database does not open, Reuters and The Guardian decide together.
We looked for cases where the UK government presented a Budget while its ten-year borrowing cost was near a five-year high: in the month before, at least 95% of its highest month in the five years before. We started in 1973, after the UK let the market set the value of the pound in June 1972. We found five such Budgets, four of them between 1973 and 1990. (Bank of England; Bank of England; Hansard)