By 12 October 2026 the government's offer to Stormont had not risen above the £1.5bn figure in place since late September; BBC News NI on 6 October still described an extra £1.5bn, and no higher offer was announced.
The offer market resolves YES if the UK government or the Executive publicly puts the package above £1.5bn over three years on or before 12 October 2026, on gov.uk or in a statement carried by two whitelisted publications. A figure described only as under discussion does not count. If gov.uk is silent, BBC News NI and the Belfast Telegraph settle it.
We found six times since 2015 that the UK improved a rejected offer. Each time the UK government offered more money, or a better funding rule, to the government of Northern Ireland, Scotland or Wales, after that government had said in public that the earlier terms were not enough. We asked whether the two sides reached agreement, an agreed Budget or a signed funding deal, within 30 days of the better offer. All six are shown.