Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Sep 2026

Is a Stormont 2026-27 Budget agreed before the 28 Oct UK Budget?

BinaryResolves 28 Oct 2026
Hunch55%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By 27 October 2026 the Executive had not agreed a 2026-27 Budget: the Department of Finance news page has no Budget agreement, and on 28 October 2026 BBC News NI and the Irish News reported that seven months into the financial year the Executive still had not agreed a budget.

Resolved 28 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The pre-Budget market resolves on the same Department of Finance or Assembly record, YES if Executive agreement is dated on or before 27 October 2026, the day before the UK Budget. If neither has published by then, BBC News NI and the Irish News settle it.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
Four of the last six times Westminster improved a rejected offer to a devolved government, agreement came within 30 days. All four were deals between two governments. The two that failed put cash to the Stormont Executive.

We found six times since 2015 that the UK improved a rejected offer. Each time the UK government offered more money, or a better funding rule, to the government of Northern Ireland, Scotland or Wales, after that government had said in public that the earlier terms were not enough. We asked whether the two sides reached agreement, an agreed Budget or a signed funding deal, within 30 days of the better offer. All six are shown.