Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Oct 2026

Will the Assembly vote to exclude Michelle O'Neill from office?

BinaryResolves 12 Oct 2026
History0 of 5
Hunch1%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The motion to exclude Michelle O'Neill fell on 12 October 2026 by 34 votes to 36, with 0% nationalist support, so it lacked cross-community support, according to the Assembly's Official Report and BBC News.

Resolved 12 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 0 of 5: no exclusion motion passed.

Hunch. Police have sent O'Neill a letter about possible offences, but Sinn Féin calls the motion a political circus.

How this resolves

The exclusion market resolves on the Official Report and Votes on Division on niassembly.gov.uk: YES if the motion against the First Minister passes with support from both communities, and NO if it falls. If the debate moves the market follows the vote, and no vote by 30 October makes it VOID.

The pattern behind it

0 of 5
None of five times did the Assembly pass a motion to exclude ministers, because members from the target’s community did not give enough votes.

We looked for cases where Northern Ireland's Assembly voted on a motion to exclude a minister, which needs a majority of both unionist and nationalist members. We found votes on five days since 2000, with two motions on the same day in 2001.