Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Oct 2026

Will any nationalist member vote to exclude Michelle O'Neill?

BinaryResolves 12 Oct 2026
History1 of 5
Hunch4%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

In the Assembly vote on 12 October 2026 to exclude the First Minister, all 35 members marked Nationalist voted No, so no nationalist voted for the motion, according to the Official Report's Votes on Division, with BBC News reporting the motion fell.

Resolved 12 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 1 of 5: only in 2016 did members from the target's own community vote for the motion.

Hunch. Sinn Féin, the largest nationalist party, called the motion a political circus.

How this resolves

The nationalist vote market resolves on the Votes on Division, which mark each member's community: YES if any member marked Nationalist votes for the motion against O'Neill, and NO if none does. The same VOID rule applies, with BBC News and The Guardian as backup.

The pattern behind it

0 of 5
None of five times did the Assembly pass a motion to exclude ministers, because members from the target’s community did not give enough votes.

We looked for cases where Northern Ireland's Assembly voted on a motion to exclude a minister, which needs a majority of both unionist and nationalist members. We found votes on five days since 2000, with two motions on the same day in 2001.