Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Oct 2026

Will no unionist member vote against excluding Michelle O'Neill?

BinaryResolves 12 Oct 2026
History4 of 5
Hunch86%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

In the Assembly vote on 12 October 2026 to exclude the First Minister, all 34 members marked Unionist who voted were Ayes and none voted No, according to the Official Report's Votes on Division, with BBC News confirming the unionist-backed motion.

Resolved 12 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 5: the community that brought the motion voted for it in full; in 2016 the split was not recorded.

Hunch. The DUP and UUP both signed the motion against O’Neill.

How this resolves

The unionist vote market resolves on the same Votes on Division: YES if no member marked Unionist votes against the motion, and NO if one does; not voting does not count. The same VOID rule applies.

The pattern behind it

0 of 5
None of five times did the Assembly pass a motion to exclude ministers, because members from the target’s community did not give enough votes.

We looked for cases where Northern Ireland's Assembly voted on a motion to exclude a minister, which needs a majority of both unionist and nationalist members. We found votes on five days since 2000, with two motions on the same day in 2001.