History. 0 of 5: none of the five attempts ended in approval within 27 days of its start. The one approval, in January 2019, came on day 30.
Hunch. On 6 November the Centre Party gave both candidates one week to make their offer, and the Sweden Democrats said they would not vote against Ulf Kristersson, so whichever side the Centre Party picks now has the numbers to pass.
The approval market resolves on the Riksdag's news page: YES if by 30 November 2026, 11:59 pm New York time, the Riksdag approves any candidate for prime minister proposed by the speaker, which happens when fewer than 175 members vote against. Rejected proposals do not count, a vote for Ulf Kristersson counts like any other, and SVT and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for cases where a candidate for prime minister in Sweden tried to win the Riksdag after it had already rejected another proposal of the speaker in the same round. We found five such attempts, four in 2018 and 2019 and one this autumn. In January 2019 the speaker said the Riksdag had never rejected his candidate before 2018. (Sveriges riksdag; SVT)