History. 3 of 5: three of the five attempts reached a vote in the Riksdag (on days 15, 21 and 30); one candidate gave up on day 7, and once the speaker chose the rival on day 28.
Hunch. The Centre Party, whose vote decides it, asked Ulf Kristersson on 6 November to show how the Sweden Democrats would not set the terms, and its leader would not say how his government could work without them.
The vote market resolves on the Riksdag's news page: YES if by the end of 3 December 2026 the Riksdag votes on a proposal naming Ulf Kristersson, whatever the result. If he hands back the task or the speaker proposes someone else and no such vote is held, it resolves NO, and SVT and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for cases where a candidate for prime minister in Sweden tried to win the Riksdag after it had already rejected another proposal of the speaker in the same round. We found five such attempts, four in 2018 and 2019 and one this autumn. In January 2019 the speaker said the Riksdag had never rejected his candidate before 2018. (Sveriges riksdag; SVT)