Hunch. The Sweden Democrats said they would let Ulf Kristersson through as head of a four-party government that includes the Centre Party, and the Centre Party said on 6 November it could sit in a government with any party except those at the extremes.
The Centre Party market resolves on the speaker's proposal as published by the Riksdag: YES if a proposal naming Ulf Kristersson, made by the end of 3 December 2026, lists the Centre Party among the parties in government, and NO if it lists a government without it. With no proposal naming Mr Kristersson by then the market is VOID, and SVT and Reuters are the backups.
We looked for cases where a candidate for prime minister in Sweden tried to win the Riksdag after it had already rejected another proposal of the speaker in the same round. We found five such attempts, four in 2018 and 2019 and one this autumn. In January 2019 the speaker said the Riksdag had never rejected his candidate before 2018. (Sveriges riksdag; SVT)