How many PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's ADIZ in July 2026?
Multiple choiceResolves 3 Aug 2026
Hunch
Under 12024%
120–20055%
Over 20021%
Your forecast
Under 120
120–200
Over 200
Resolved
Resolved: 120–200
194 PLA aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ in July 2026, summed from the 31 daily MND reports; the bucket is 120–200.
Resolved 1 Aug 2026
How this resolves
The ADIZ market resolves on the sum of daily PLA aircraft detections reported by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense for 1-31 July 2026.
The pattern behind it
0 of 5
Zero of the past five Han Kuang exercises triggered a named PLA counter-exercise. Beijing's set-piece drills answer speeches and visits, not Taiwan's training calendar. The honest caveat: 2026 is the first year Beijing has held continuous coast guard positions east of the island while that calendar runs.
None of the last five Han Kuang drills drew a named Chinese exercise. We looked at the named exercises China's army has run around Taiwan since 2022 and asked what set each one off. Each came after a political moment in Taipei, such as a speech or a visit, and none after Taiwan's own training calendar. The four exercises below are those named campaigns. The five Han Kuang drills are a separate count.
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