Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market06 Oct 2026

Will Greg Abbott win the Texas governor election on 3 November?

BinaryResolves 4 Nov 2026
History89%
Hunch73%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the most votes for Texas governor on 3 November 2026, 5,035,459 (52.76%) to Greg Abbott's 4,367,500 (45.77%) with 93% counted in the AP data shown by The Guardian, as BBC News and The Guardian report; the Texas Secretary of State results are behind a Cloudflare check.

Resolved 4 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. 8 of 9: every governor in this position won again except Mario Cuomo in New York in 1994.

Hunch. A New York Times and Siena poll taken a month before the vote puts Gina Hinojosa three points ahead of Greg Abbott (The Independent, 5 Oct).

How this resolves

Resolves on the unofficial results of the Texas Secretary of State, checked at 12:00 Texas time on 4 November 2026: YES if Greg Abbott has the most votes for governor, NO if another candidate does. The Guardian and BBC News are the backup, and if no result is announced by the end of 4 November the market waits for the state's count.

The pattern behind it

8 of 9
Eight of nine such governors won again. The one who lost, Mario Cuomo in New York in 1994, went down on a night his party lost across the country.

We looked for cases where a governor from the president's party ran again in the middle of the president's term, after winning the job at least twice, in a state where the other party had not won it for more than 20 years. We found nine, from 1942 to 2014, in eight states. Four were in the South, where one party had ruled for decades.