Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Oct 2026

Will Bo French fall short of the Republicans' 2024 Railroad margin?

BinaryResolves 3 Nov 2026
History100%
Hunch97%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Bo French lost the Texas Railroad Commissioner race of 3 November 2026, Jon Rosenthal leading 52.5% to 45.6% with 92% counted when the Associated Press called it on 4 November, and NBC News also projects Rosenthal and the Texas Tribune reports French conceded (all off-list); the Texas Secretary of State results are behind a Cloudflare check and The New York Times and Reuters are closed to us.

Resolved 3 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. The 16.6 point mark comes from the 2024 vote for a different seat on the board, which the sitting member Christi Craddick won.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if the Texas Secretary of State results for Railroad Commissioner in the general election of 3 November 2026 show Bo French with a lead over the nearest rival below 16.64 points, or show him losing, and NO if his lead is 16.64 points or more. If the state results do not name a winner by the end of 4 November, the official state canvass decides, and New York Times and Reuters reports decide together if the state page does not open.

The pattern behind it

9 of 9
All nine times from 2013 to 2024 that a party ran a candidate known for remarks against minorities, for a seat it had won by 10 points or more, the candidate's lead was smaller.

We looked for cases where a party ran a candidate in a US general election who was known before the vote for his or her own remarks against people for their race, religion or sexual orientation, for a seat the party had won by at least 10 points the time before. We found nine such races from 2013 to 2024, in official election results.