Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Oct 2026

Will Bo French lose the Texas Railroad Commission race on 3 Nov?

BinaryResolves 3 Nov 2026
History33%
Hunch48%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Jon Rosenthal, not Bo French, won the most votes for Texas Railroad Commissioner on 3 November 2026, 52.5% to 45.6% with 92% counted when the Associated Press called it on 4 November, and NBC News also projects Rosenthal and the Texas Tribune reports French conceded (all off-list); the Texas Secretary of State results are behind a Cloudflare check.

Resolved 3 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Mid-October polls had Ken Paxton, the Republican for the US Senate in Texas, slightly behind, and in Virginia in 2013 the lower race was lost along with the race for governor.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if the Texas Secretary of State results for Railroad Commissioner in the general election of 3 November 2026 show any candidate other than Bo French with the most votes, and NO if French has the most; a tie is void. If no winner is named by the end of 4 November, the official state canvass decides, and New York Times and Reuters reports decide together if the state page does not open.

The pattern behind it

9 of 9
All nine times from 2013 to 2024 that a party ran a candidate known for remarks against minorities, for a seat it had won by 10 points or more, the candidate's lead was smaller.

We looked for cases where a party ran a candidate in a US general election who was known before the vote for his or her own remarks against people for their race, religion or sexual orientation, for a seat the party had won by at least 10 points the time before. We found nine such races from 2013 to 2024, in official election results.