Hunch. Karl Rove said in September he would vote for the Democrat in this race, and in the two similar past races the candidate ran about eight points behind his party's top name.
Resolves YES if the Texas Secretary of State results of 3 November 2026 show Bo French's lead over the nearest Railroad Commissioner rival (a negative number if he trails) smaller than Ken Paxton's lead over the nearest US Senate rival, and NO if it is larger; void if the two are the same or Paxton is not on the ballot. If the state results are not complete by the end of 4 November, the official state canvass decides, and New York Times and Reuters reports decide together if the state page does not open.
We looked for cases where a party ran a candidate in a US general election who was known before the vote for his or her own remarks against people for their race, religion or sexual orientation, for a seat the party had won by at least 10 points the time before. We found nine such races from 2013 to 2024, in official election results.