James Talarico won the Texas Senate race of 3 November 2026, beating Ken Paxton 55.0% to 43.1% with about 91% counted, as BBC News and The Guardian report from the Associated Press call; the Texas results site showed no data to scripts.
Hunch. The latest polls give James Talarico only a small lead. Kansas was the one selected case where an opposing candidate led a poll but the incumbent kept the seat.
The winner market resolves on the Texas Secretary of State results site (results.texas-election.com): YES if James Talarico is declared the winner of the US Senate election in Texas held on 3 November 2026, and NO if Ken Paxton or any other candidate is declared the winner. If no winner is declared by the end of 3 November the market stays open until one is, and BBC News and The Guardian reporting the Associated Press count settle it if the official site is silent.
We examined five selected US Senate elections from 2008 to 2014. In each, one party had held the seat for at least 30 elapsed years, and an opposing candidate led a poll publicly released in the last month before the vote. The party that held the seat lost four of the five elections. The sole exception was Kansas, where incumbent Pat Roberts kept his seat.