The Associated Press declared James Talarico the winner of the Texas Senate race at about 11pm Eastern time on 3 November 2026, well before the end of 4 November, as BBC News and The Guardian report.
Hunch. In Alaska, AP called the winner on 18 November and Stevens conceded on 19 November, after the 4 November election. The other four selected races had a winner announced or a concession on election night; announcement and concession are not the same as completed counting or certification.
The result-timing market resolves on BBC News and The Guardian reporting the Associated Press count: YES if a winner of the Texas Senate race is announced, or one candidate publicly concedes, by 23:59 Central Time on 4 November 2026, and NO if no winner is announced by then. The Texas Secretary of State results site is the backup.
We examined five selected US Senate elections from 2008 to 2014. In each, one party had held the seat for at least 30 elapsed years, and an opposing candidate led a poll publicly released in the last month before the vote. The party that held the seat lost four of the five elections. The sole exception was Kansas, where incumbent Pat Roberts kept his seat.