YouGov's first voting intention poll with all fieldwork after 28 October 2026, fieldwork 1 to 2 November and published on 3 November (the previous wave was 25 to 26 October), puts the Conservatives on 24% and Reform UK on 21%, as YouGov's own article and The Independent report.
Hunch. YouGov has put the Conservatives above Reform UK in three weekly polls in a row since 13 October, a run no earlier swap for second place showed.
The Conservatives market resolves on YouGov's voting intention tracker and poll article: YES if YouGov's first voting intention poll with all fieldwork after 28 October 2026 puts the Conservatives strictly above Reform UK, and NO if Reform UK is strictly above. A tie, or no such poll by 10 November, makes it void, and reports of the same poll by The Independent and The Guardian settle it if YouGov's pages are silent.
We looked for cases where a party in opposition had just moved into second place in a national poll, behind the governing party. We found nine such polls. Seven were by Ipsos in Britain in 1982 and 1983, when Labour and the Alliance of the Liberals and the Social Democratic Party fought for second place. Two were by EKOS in Canada in 2015, when the Liberals and the New Democrats did the same under Stephen Harper’s Conservative government.