YouGov's first voting intention poll with all fieldwork after 28 October 2026, fieldwork 1 to 2 November and published on 3 November, puts Reform UK on 21%, as YouGov's own article and The Independent report.
Hunch. YouGov put Reform UK on 20% on 27 October, two points down in one week.
The Reform UK market resolves on the same YouGov poll: YES if it puts Reform UK on 21% or more, and NO if on 20% or less. If no such poll is out by 10 November it is void, and The Independent and The Guardian reports of the poll settle it if YouGov's pages are silent.
We looked for cases where a party in opposition had just moved into second place in a national poll, behind the governing party. We found nine such polls. Seven were by Ipsos in Britain in 1982 and 1983, when Labour and the Alliance of the Liberals and the Social Democratic Party fought for second place. Two were by EKOS in Canada in 2015, when the Liberals and the New Democrats did the same under Stephen Harper’s Conservative government.