History. 5 of 6: all but Paul Scully in 2023, a minister when his party ran the country.
Hunch. Gareth Bacon told the conference the party treated the last two races as a paper candidacy, and Cleverly is a former home secretary.
The shortlist market resolves on the Conservative Party's announcement of the final list for the member vote: YES if James Cleverly is on it, and NO if he is not or withdrew first. BBC News and The Guardian confirm it; if the date moves, the first announcement counts.
We looked for cases where a party chose its candidate for London mayor through a vote of members, and the press at the time named one person as the favourite. We found six since 2007, four Conservative and two Labour.