History. 4 of 6: Johnson 2007, Livingstone 2010, Goldsmith 2015 and Bailey 2018 won; Jowell lost in 2015 and Scully missed the list in 2023.
Hunch. The party has named no date for the member vote, and any delay past 31 January counts as no.
The candidate market resolves on the party's announcement of the winner: YES if Cleverly is named on or before 31 January 2027, and NO if someone else wins or there is no result by then. BBC News and The Guardian confirm it.
We looked for cases where a party chose its candidate for London mayor through a vote of members, and the press at the time named one person as the favourite. We found six since 2007, four Conservative and two Labour.