Vingegaard crashed out on stage 15 and was not on the final classification in Paris, which ASO headed with Pogacar (letour.fr, 26 Jul 2026).
The market resolves on the official ASO final classification at letour.fr on 26 July. It resolves YES if Vingegaard is listed as a finisher in Paris, whatever his placing; abandonment, disqualification or a non-start resolves NO. If that source has not published in time, ESPN and BBC Sport settle it.
Pogacar won three of the five Tours both men finished since 2021. We looked at every Tour since then that both riders completed. In each one they finished first and second, and the rider who led the race going into the third week won it. We ask the same question as the first market: did Pogacar win the race? We used reports from ESPN and Olympics.com and the official results.