In a written statement to Parliament on 28 October 2026 (HCWS427) the Work and Pensions Secretary said the basic and new State Pension will rise by 3.9% in line with average weekly earnings growth in May to July 2026, and BBC News reports the 3.9% rise.
Hunch. No minister has moved to suspend the wage link before the figure, as Thérèse Coffey did a week ahead of it in 2021, and Labour gave both of its confirmations on Budget day, so the two ways this missed before both look weaker now than bond market pressure makes it sound.
This market resolves on the UK Parliament written statements record at questions-statements.parliament.uk and on the Budget speech published on gov.uk, both of which appear on the day they are made. It resolves YES if either, on or before 28 October 2026, says the basic and new State Pension will rise in line with average earnings growth for May to July 2026, whatever the final revised figure; a promise to keep the triple lock without a rate does not count, and if both pages are down, reports of the statement by BBC News and The Guardian settle it.
We looked at every year since the triple lock began in 2011 when the September wage figure was the highest of the three numbers. There are seven: 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. We checked when the government formally confirmed a rise in line with wages, in a Budget speech or a written statement to Parliament. Labour took over in July 2024, so only two of the seven decisions were made by the party now in power.