Hunch. The record's only miss was a suspension announced before the wage figure, and none has come this year, but a new Chancellor's first Budget under record borrowing costs keeps the risk of a change close to where the record already puts it.
This market resolves on legislation.gov.uk, which publishes each up-rating order within days of it being made, with the DWP statement on 2027 to 2028 rates as the reference for the wage figure. It resolves YES if the Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2027 is made on or before 31 March 2027 and raises the full new state pension by the May to July 2026 wage growth figure, and NO if it is made later or uses any other rate; if the site is down, the gov.uk page Benefit and pension rates 2027 to 2028 and BBC News settle it.
We looked at every year since the triple lock began in 2011 when the September wage figure was the highest of the three numbers. There are seven: 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. We checked when the government formally confirmed a rise in line with wages, in a Budget speech or a written statement to Parliament. Labour took over in July 2024, so only two of the seven decisions were made by the party now in power.