Hunch. On 22 October the bank said inflation is slowing underneath, but it named energy prices as a risk, as it did before it stopped cutting in March.
The cut market resolves on the central bank's press release on interest rates of 10 December 2026: YES if the one-week repo rate is lowered from its level before the meeting, now 36%, and NO if it is kept or raised. If tcmb.gov.tr cannot be opened, Reuters and BBC reports of the decision settle it.
We looked for cases where Turkey’s central bank made its first rate move after at least three meetings without a change, then met again as planned. There were 18 such first moves since 2006. Five came when the bank said demand at home was weak or slowing, as it says now. The meetings after them came in 2007, 2008, 2016, 2021 and 2025.