Hunch. Before 22 October, the bank's last three cuts were 1 or 1.5 points, and that day it named energy prices as a risk.
The size market resolves on the same press release: YES if the one-week repo rate is lowered by more than 1 percentage point, which from 36% means below 35%, and NO if it is cut by 1 point or less, kept or raised. Reuters and BBC are the backup.
We looked for cases where Turkey’s central bank made its first rate move after at least three meetings without a change, then met again as planned. There were 18 such first moves since 2006. Five came when the bank said demand at home was weak or slowing, as it says now. The meetings after them came in 2007, 2008, 2016, 2021 and 2025.