History. In three of four US maps drawn to win a seat at a midterm under an unpopular president of the same party, the party that drew the map won the seat (Illinois and Oregon and New Mexico 2022), and it lost once (Georgia 2006).
Hunch. Polls reported by the BBC on 23 October put Democrat Bobby Pulido five or six points ahead.
The Texas 15th district market resolves on the official Texas Secretary of State results after the local count, which must end by 17 November 2026: YES if Monica De La Cruz has the most votes, NO if Bobby Pulido or anyone else has the most, and void if the top two are equal. If a recount is filed it waits for the state count by 7 December, with BBC News and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where the party running a US state drew new congressional lines to win a chosen seat, and the first vote came at a midterm, halfway through the term of an unpopular president from that party. We found four such maps, in 2006 and 2022, with five seats. The party that drew the map won with three and lost with one.