Hunch. The Guardian reported on 25 October that the Texas redrawing pushed by Trump looks like a failure for now, as Latino support looks set to fall amid anger over inflation and immigration crackdowns.
The Texas seats market resolves on the same official results for all 38 Texas districts: YES if Republicans win at least five more Texas seats than they won in 2024 in the official congressional results, NO if they gain four or fewer. Districts with a recount wait for the state count by 7 December, with BBC News and The Guardian as backups.
We looked for cases where the party running a US state drew new congressional lines to win a chosen seat, and the first vote came at a midterm, halfway through the term of an unpopular president from that party. We found four such maps, in 2006 and 2022, with five seats. The party that drew the map won with three and lost with one.