Hunch. Official figures out by 15 October already point to about 1.5% for the year if output simply holds still, which is the very top of the range.
Resolves YES if the ONS first quarterly estimate for October to December 2026, published on 12 February 2027, puts UK GDP growth for calendar 2026 from 0.9% to 1.5% inclusive, and NO if it is below 0.9% or above 1.5%. Later revisions do not count, and if the ONS bulletin does not open, The Guardian and BBC News reports of the same release decide.
We looked for cases where the Office for Budget Responsibility gave its forecast for growth in the current year on a Budget day in the autumn, and the ONS later gave its first figure for that whole year. We found five such Budgets, from 2017 to 2025. Before 2017 the autumn forecast came with a smaller Autumn Statement. Four times the first figure came within 0.3 percentage points of the forecast.