Hunch. Monthly figures out on 15 October lift the summer quarter so much that September output would have to fall by more than 1% for the year to slip under 1.3%.
Resolves YES if the ONS first quarterly estimate for October to December 2026, published on 12 February 2027, puts UK GDP growth for calendar 2026 at 1.3% or more, NO at 1.1% or less, and VOID at exactly 1.2%. Later revisions do not count, and if the ONS bulletin does not open, The Guardian and BBC News reports of the same release decide.
We looked for cases where the Office for Budget Responsibility gave its forecast for growth in the current year on a Budget day in the autumn, and the ONS later gave its first figure for that whole year. We found five such Budgets, from 2017 to 2025. Before 2017 the autumn forecast came with a smaller Autumn Statement. Four times the first figure came within 0.3 percentage points of the forecast.