Hunch. For Irish Sea cod, scientists now ask for zero catch two years in a row, for both 2027 and 2028.
The Irish Sea cod market resolves on the UK and EU written record of fisheries talks for 2027 on GOV.UK, or the EU's 2027 fishing rules: YES if by 31 December 2026 the total Irish Sea cod limit for 2027, both sides together, is below 165 tonnes, zero included, and NO if it is 165 tonnes or more. With no deal, the temporary limits of both sides for all of 2027 decide, the market is void if nothing is published by 31 December or only one side publishes, and BBC News and The Guardian are the backups.
We looked for cases where the UK and the EU set a yearly limit for Celtic Sea or Irish Sea cod after scientists advised zero catch. We found nine such limits in five yearly deals from 2022 to 2026. Both seas are in the same deal each year, so each deal counts once, and a deal that cut one of its two limits counts as half. (GOV.UK; GOV.UK)