Hunch. On 30 October the RAC put diesel at 198.79p, so the pump price was still easing at the end of October, with only two weekly figures left before 9 November.
The 9 November market resolves on the same government survey, out on Tuesday 10 November: YES if UK diesel is above 200.04p a litre in the week of 2 November or 9 November. Backups are the same as for the 30 November market, and RAC and AA estimates do not count.
We looked for cases where an official weekly fuel price in Europe or the US set a new high and then eased for two weeks, staying within 1 per cent of it. We kept only times when war or sanctions cut fuel supply. Each time oil refiners also reported their biggest profits in years, and governments had released emergency oil stocks together. We found seven such highs, all in 2022, and checked whether the price went higher within seven weeks.