Hunch. S&P Global's survey for October showed factory output growing at its fastest pace in 25 months, which points to a rise in the official figure.
The October growth market resolves on the ONS release Index of Production, UK: October 2026, due at 7am on 11 December 2026: YES if manufacturing output for October is above September, both as shown in that release, and NO if the change is 0.0% or lower. Only manufacturing counts, not the whole index or the economy-wide figure out the same morning, and The Guardian and Reuters together settle it if the ONS pages do not open.
We looked for cases where the UK factory survey was above 50 and higher than the month before, while oil cost at least 30% more than one and two years earlier. The survey also had to be above 50 for the two months before and higher than in each of the four months before. We found five such months since 2000, and two of them came in the same oil price jump in 2026.