Hunch. Average five-year fixed mortgage rates hit 6% on 5 October for the first time in three years, so October buyers were borrowing at higher prices than in September.
The October market resolves on the Bank of England's Money and Credit release for October, due at 9:30am on 30 November 2026: YES if seasonally adjusted approvals for buying a home in October are lower than September's figure in that same release, and NO if equal or higher, with a tie in the Bank's database in single units counting as NO. If the release moves, the market resolves on the new date, and Guardian or Reuters reports confirm the figure or settle it if the Bank's pages do not open.
We looked for cases where Bank of England figures showed home loan approvals falling two or more months in a row, to below the six-month average, while the rate stayed the same and some Bank members voted for a rise. In 1994 there was no such vote, but the Bank said markets expected a rise. We found 15 such months since 1993 and took the ten most recent, from 2010 to 2026.