Hunch. Fixed mortgage rates have stayed near 6% since 5 October, so a quick bounce in approvals before the end of November looks less likely.
The two-month market resolves on the Money and Credit release for November, due at 9:30am on 5 January 2027: YES if approvals for both October and November are lower than September, all three as shown in that release, and NO if either month is equal or higher. Backups are the same as for the October market.
We looked for cases where Bank of England figures showed home loan approvals falling two or more months in a row, to below the six-month average, while the rate stayed the same and some Bank members voted for a rise. In 1994 there was no such vote, but the Bank said markets expected a rise. We found 15 such months since 1993 and took the ten most recent, from 2010 to 2026.