Hunch. Home Office figures show 727,000 visas other than for short visits in the year to June 2026, down from 809,000 in the year to December 2025, so fewer people arrived in the year ONS will measure.
The below 171,000 market resolves on the ONS bulletin for the year to June 2026, set as provisional for 9:30am on 26 November 2026 on the ONS calendar, while the May bulletin listed its next release as to be announced: YES if the first estimate of net migration for that year is below 171,000, the figure the ONS gave for 2025 on 21 May, and NO if it is 171,000 or higher. If the release moves, the market resolves on the new date and is void if nothing comes out by 31 December, and BBC News or The Guardian confirm the figure or settle it together if the ONS pages do not open.
We looked for cases where the ONS gave its regular estimate of UK net migration for the latest year, and compared it with its first figure for the period before. The ONS changed its method in 2021 and says older and newer figures should be compared with caution. We found eight such releases from November 2022 to May 2026. The new figure was lower three times, and those were the last three.