Hunch. Visas other than for short visits fell by 82,000 in the first half of 2026, twice as fast as in the half year before, which points to a lower figure for the year to June 2026.
The revised figure market resolves on the same release: YES if the figure for the year to June 2026 is lower than the updated figure for 2025 in that bulletin, NO if it is higher, and void if the two are equal after rounding to thousands. Backups and a moved date work as for the below 171,000 market.
We looked for cases where the ONS gave its regular estimate of UK net migration for the latest year, and compared it with its first figure for the period before. The ONS changed its method in 2021 and says older and newer figures should be compared with caution. We found eight such releases from November 2022 to May 2026. The new figure was lower three times, and those were the last three.