Hunch. On 15 October the Office for National Statistics again revised June's growth up, from 0.3% to 0.4%, and in the ten earlier quarters no first estimate was revised down a month later.
The revision market resolves on the ONS bulletin 'GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2026', due at 7am on 22 December 2026: YES if the growth figure for July to September in that bulletin, to one decimal place, is higher than the headline first estimate of 12 November, and NO if it is the same or lower. If the release is moved it resolves on the actual second estimate, it is void if none is published by 31 January 2027, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the ONS page is down.
We looked for cases where the Office for National Statistics published its first estimate of quarterly growth after the monthly figures for the first two months of the quarter had both shown growth. We found ten such quarters since monthly GDP figures began in 2018, from April to June 2018 to January to March 2026. In eight of them the first estimate was 0.4% or more, and in two it was lower.