Hunch. Payrolled jobs fell by 26,000 in August alone, so a rise in young people out of work and study is a little more likely than a fall.
The fall market resolves on the same ONS bulletin: YES if it says the count for July to September 2026 is lower than for April to June 2026, compared as the release itself compares them, and NO if it is higher or unchanged. If the release gives the change only as a share of young people, the share counts.
We looked for cases where the ONS count of young people out of work and study stood just under a million, between 933,000 and 999,999, before the next release. We found nine such releases from 2014 to 2026. Only once, in May 2026, did the next count go over a million. Today the count is 19,000 short of a million, and it rose by that much or more in two of the nine.