The US Treasury daily par yield curve shows the 10-year rate closed at 4.94% on 30 October 2026, well below the 5.28% line; a whitelist report could not be read (Reuters blocks scripts), so the Treasury data alone settles it.
History. 3 of 5: 1975, 1978 and 1981 stayed above the jump level after 23 days; 2022 and 2023 fell back below.
Hunch. On 8 October, a day after the 2002 high, the 10-year rate fell to 5.22%, already below the 5.28% line.
The 10-year market resolves on the US Treasury daily yield curve for 30 October 2026: YES if the 10-year rate closes above 5.28% and NO if it closes at 5.28% or below. A whitelist news report confirms it, and two such reports settle it if the Treasury page does not open.
We looked for cases where the rate on 10-year US government debt closed above its highest level of the past ten years, more than a year after the last such jump. We found five since 1972. Each is followed for 23 days, the time from 7 to 30 October. The 30-year rate has only two such jumps, so the 10-year rate is used.