Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market27 Oct 2026

Will the US reopen a cheap beef import quota by 29 December?

BinaryResolves 29 Dec 2026
History57%
Hunch49%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 29 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Three ranchers' groups opposed the cheap beef quota, Al Jazeera reported on 25 October.

How this resolves

The 29 December return market resolves on the same page: YES if from 28 October to the end of 29 December 2026, Washington time, the president signs an act that extends the extra lean beef trimmings quota or gives a new amount of beef at the lower tariff for a period after 30 November. The Argentina quota does not count, and Reuters and Al Jazeera reports settle it together if whitehouse.gov does not open.

The pattern behind it

2 of 7
Two of seven times from 1972 to 1981, a US president extended cheaper food imports before the end date written in the act, and five times the new act came 18 to 84 days after it.

We looked for cases where a US president eased limits on food imports for a fixed time, with the end date written in the act. We found seven such times from 1972 to 1981, mostly for meat and dried milk. Each time the president decided alone, and five of the seven were Richard Nixon.