Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market11 Sep 2026

Does the US average diesel price reach $6.21 by 5 October?

BinaryResolves 5 Oct 2026
History50%
Hunch60%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

EIA weekly US on-highway diesel average was $6.285 for the week of 14 September 2026, above $6.21; $6.529 on 21 September.

Resolved 14 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The diesel market resolves on the Energy Information Administration's weekly retail price for US on-highway diesel, posted each Monday afternoon on eia.gov: a national average of $6.21 or more, four per cent above the record $5.967 of 7 September, in any survey week up to and including 5 October resolves YES. A later revision to a figure already posted does not reopen it, and if the EIA release is delayed past 6 October the AAA national average reported by Reuters and the BBC settles it.

The pattern behind it

3 of 6
Three of the last six fresh records cleared 4 per cent within four weeks: August 2004 (5.3 per cent), November 2007 (4.3 per cent) and March 2022 (8.3 per cent), the last of them in a single week. Three did not: February 2003 stopped a tenth of a cent short and set no higher price for 17 months, January 2000 took six weeks to clear the line, and December 1995 took three months. The split runs by cause rather than by era. The three that cleared came with a physical supply loss behind them; the three that did not came in winters when the squeeze was in heating demand and eased with the weather. All six, including the slow ones, set at least one further record inside the four weeks.

We looked at every new all-time high in the government's weekly US diesel price since the figures began in 1994, counting it only when the old record was at least six months old. We checked whether the price went on to reach 4 per cent above that first record within the next four weekly surveys. We found six such records, and three did.