Does US diesel cost $2 a gallon more than petrol by 5 October?
BinaryResolves 5 Oct 2026
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Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
EIA weekly averages for 21 September 2026 (released 22 September): diesel $6.529 less regular petrol $4.478 = $2.051, above $2.00.
Resolved 22 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The diesel-to-petrol market resolves on the same Monday release, taking the national on-highway diesel average less the regular petrol average: $2.00 or more in any week up to and including 5 October resolves YES, against $1.81 on 7 September. If either EIA figure is missing, the AAA national averages for the same day as reported by Reuters and the BBC stand in.
The pattern behind it
3 of 6
Three of the last six fresh records cleared 4 per cent within four weeks: August 2004 (5.3 per cent), November 2007 (4.3 per cent) and March 2022 (8.3 per cent), the last of them in a single week. Three did not: February 2003 stopped a tenth of a cent short and set no higher price for 17 months, January 2000 took six weeks to clear the line, and December 1995 took three months. The split runs by cause rather than by era. The three that cleared came with a physical supply loss behind them; the three that did not came in winters when the squeeze was in heating demand and eased with the weather. All six, including the slow ones, set at least one further record inside the four weeks.
We looked at every new all-time high in the government's weekly US diesel price since the figures began in 1994, counting it only when the old record was at least six months old. We checked whether the price went on to reach 4 per cent above that first record within the next four weekly surveys. We found six such records, and three did.
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