Hunch. Three times this year US petrol rose 8% to 11% within three weeks after an oil jump, and US oil hit its highest price of the year on 23 October.
The $4.60 market resolves YES if AAA reports a US national average for regular petrol above $4.60 on any day from 23 March to 31 December 2026, and NO otherwise. AAA's daily figure on gasprices.aaa.com settles it, and Guardian or Independent reports confirm it if the AAA page does not open.
We looked for cases where the US petrol price in the last week of October was lower than a month before and below that year's high, after a second rise had stopped short of the high, while oil had not lost more than 5% in that month. Weekly prices from the US Energy Information Administration start in August 1990. We found seven such years since 1991. For each one we followed the price to the last week of December.