Hunch. Each of the three oil jumps this year lifted US petrol 8% or more within three weeks, and one more before late December could keep it above $4.18.
The year-end market resolves YES if AAA's current US average for regular petrol on gasprices.aaa.com on 31 December 2026 is below $4.1800, and NO at $4.1800 or above. AAA's weekly price report that day is the backup, and Guardian or Independent reports confirm it.
We looked for cases where the US petrol price in the last week of October was lower than a month before and below that year's high, after a second rise had stopped short of the high, while oil had not lost more than 5% in that month. Weekly prices from the US Energy Information Administration start in August 1990. We found seven such years since 1991. For each one we followed the price to the last week of December.